Saturday, March 5, 2011
Traditional forecasting techniques often fail to predict significant changes in the firm's external environment, especially when the change is rapid and turbulent or when information is limited. Consequently, important opportunities and serious threats may be overlooked and the very survival of the firm may be at stake. Scenario planning is a tool specifically designed to deal with major, uncertain shifts in the firm's environment.
Scenario planning has its roots in military strategy studies. Herman Kahn was an early founder of scenario-based planning in his work related to the possible scenarios associated with thermonuclear war ("thinking the unthinkable"). Scenario planning was transformed into a business tool in the late 1960's and early 1970's, most notably by Pierre Wack who developed the scenario planning system used by Royal Dutch/Shell. As a result of these efforts, Shell was prepared to deal with the oil shock that occurred in late 1973 and greatly improved its competitive position in the industry during the oil crisis and the oil glut that followed.
Scenario planning is not about predicting the future. Rather, it attempts to describe what is possible. The result of a scenario analysis is a group of distinct futures, all of which are plausible. The challenge then is how to deal with each of the possible scenarios.
Scenario planning often takes place in a workshop setting of high level executives, technical experts, and industry leaders. The idea is to bring together a wide range of perspectives in order to consider scenarios other than the widely accepted forecasts. The scenario development process should include interviews with managers who later will formulate and implement strategies based on the scenario analysis - without their input the scenarios may leave out important details and not lead to action if they do not address issues important to those who will implement the strategy.
Learn about at: http://www.netmba.com/strategy/scenario/
Posted by Joao Moraes at 3:39 PM