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Friday, November 18, 2016

What Do Incorrect Election Predictions Mean for Consumer Research?

How did so many pollsters get the presidential election so wrong? The answer could have implications for research firms and brand marketers who rely on their methodologies.

"We're doing a range of things at SurveyMonkey, and I know my colleagues across the industry are doing the same things, to try to figure out are we having a small problem or is it something bigger?" said Chief Research Officer Jon Cohen. "We don't yet know whether this is the cataclysmic polling failure we've all anticipated for a decade or more or it's something more run-of-the-mill."

Much of the blame has been directed at Trump voters, many of them unwilling to admit, particularly to live human beings on the other end of the phone, their plans to vote for the candidate.

But Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, has another explanation for why other polls were wrong, one that has more direct implications for marketers: poor-quality data.

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