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PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THIS PROCEDURES GUIDE
In the past 30 years, much has been written on PRA methods and applications. Several university
and practitioner textbooks and sourcebooks currently exist, but they focus on applications to PRA for industries other than aerospace. Although some of the techniques used in PRA originated in work for aerospace and military applications, no comprehensive reference currently exists for PRA applications to aerospace systems.
In the past 30 years, much has been written on PRA methods and applications. Several university
and practitioner textbooks and sourcebooks currently exist, but they focus on applications to PRA for industries other than aerospace. Although some of the techniques used in PRA originated in work for aerospace and military applications, no comprehensive reference currently exists for PRA applications to aerospace systems.
NASA has launched an aggressive effort of conducting training to increase PRA awareness and to increase proficiency of PRA practitioners throughout the Agency.
The initial phase of practitioner training is based on a 3- to 4-day course taught for NASA by recognized experts in the field.
This PRA Procedures Guide is neither a textbook nor a sourcebook of PRA methods and techniques for the subject matter. It is the recommended approach and procedures, based on the experience of the authors, of how PRA should be performed for aerospace applications.
It therefore serves two purposes:
1. To complement the training material taught in the PRA course for practitioners
and, together with the Fault Tree Handbook, to provide PRA methodology
documentation.
2. To assist aerospace PRA practitioners in selecting an analysis approach that is
best suited for their applications.
This PRA Procedures Guide is neither a textbook nor a sourcebook of PRA methods and techniques for the subject matter. It is the recommended approach and procedures, based on the experience of the authors, of how PRA should be performed for aerospace applications.
It therefore serves two purposes:
1. To complement the training material taught in the PRA course for practitioners
and, together with the Fault Tree Handbook, to provide PRA methodology
documentation.
2. To assist aerospace PRA practitioners in selecting an analysis approach that is
best suited for their applications.
The material of this Procedures Guide is organized into three parts:
1. A management introduction to PRA is presented in Chapters 1-3. After a historic introduction on PRA at NASA and a discussion of the relation between PRA and risk management, an overview of PRA with simple examples is presented.
2. Chapters 4-14 cover probabilistic methods for PRA, methods for scenario development, uncertainty analysis, data collection and parameter estimation, human reliability analysis, software reliability analysis, dependent failure analysis, and modeling of physical processes for PRA.
3. Chapter 15 provides a detailed discussion of the “scenario-based” PRA process using two aerospace examples.
The only departure of this Procedures Guide from the description of experience-based recommended approaches is in the areas of Human Reliability (Chapter 9) and Software Risk Assessment (Chapter 11). Analytical methods in these two areas are not mature enough, at least in aerospace applications. Therefore, instead of recommended approaches, these chapters describe some popular methods for the sake of completeness. It is the hope of the authors that in future editions it will be possible to provide recommended approaches in these two areas also.
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